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Friday, 13 January 12
DIFFICULT START OF 2012 FOR DRY BULK MARKET SEEN HARD TO CHANGE IN THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, UNLESS DEMOLITION PICKS UP
 The dry bulk market has been on a freefall this week after a rocky start to the new year. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry's benchmark plunged by 7.38% to reach just 1,105 points, almost half of where it stood as 2011 ended. These past few sessions have reminded ship owners just how fragile the market remains, as the pace of the fall of freight rates is equivalent of the crisis days of 2008, now 3.5 years ago. Capesizes lost a staggering 9.74 percent just yesterday and more than 20% since the start of 2012, an indicative sign of the lack of demand in the market and a flood of newbuilding deliveries.
In its latest weekly report, shipbrokers Intermodal said that a rebound in freight rates would be hard to be seen in 2012, unless Chinese growth exceeds the pundits expectations or unless another demand driver like China appear in the picture. "India may play this role as its ever increased demand to import coal to feed its power plants could absorb some tonnage and support freight rates especially for the bigger vessels. Already the state owned mining company Coal India plans to open new mines in Indonesia in order to cover future needs. Although it is not possible to find such support from one day to another, India will definitely play its catalytic role as a demand driver and supporter of the dry bulk market for the next couple of years" said Intermodal's Yannis Olziersky.
He went on to mention that "the global economic outlook for 2012 is not looking much healthier than last year and with an increased supply of new vessels hitting the water, shipowners are getting prepared for an even worse market then the one that past. The target for this year should be the same as 2011, weathering the lows.
Demand wise analysts are expecting the volume of cargoes which are transported by dry bulk carriers to show some growth; however same are expecting 2012 to be the weakest growth in demand in at least a decade, especially for shipments of iron ore. This is due to the slowing Chinese growth which is expected to drop to 8.5 percent this year compared with 9.2 percent in 2011. Analyst forecast that China is expected to import 5.8 percent more iron ore this year against the 10 percent in 2011, a quite significant difference which will logically put pressure on freight rates, bearing in mind that the industry is expected to face the biggest fleet growth in recent history. Already the rally in capesize rates which began in August is fading and the BCI has lost 40 percent since its peak in December 12th" said Mr. Olziersky.
On the demolition front, Clarkson Hellas said earlier this week that "2012 has begun very positively with news that Bangladesh is on the verge of re-opening and on the back of a stable currency and improved steel prices domestically, India increasing their price indications and Chinese breakers continuing their aggressive stance from last year. However, on paper everything looks rosy, but an air of caution is still to be adopted as currently, Bangladesh remains closed until the hearing due next Thursday 12th, and Indian rates are on the rise but only because some cash intermediaries appear to be speculating on the re]opening of the Bangladeshi market and as such, the current improved rates seen for tonnage basis delivery India are not being justified on the waterfront at Alang. The concern for most is the tremendous amount of tonnage being proposed to the market since the turn of the year and whether the current firm rates can hold. Many parties believe that when Bangladesh officially re-opens the rates will increase substantially in excess of the USD 500/ldt level, however this is again pure speculation and if the amount of new tonnage witnessed in the market over the last few days is anything to go by, then the conveyor belt of tonnage supply may affect the breakers mentality in the near future even if Bangladesh does re-open next week as predicted" said Clarkson Hellas.
Intermodal also mentioned in its analysis that "during the first three quarters of the year, demolition activity peaked up, with many vessels heading towards the beach, setting a record at a time when the industry needed it. However the last quarter of the year, activity slowed down as prices softened and cash Buyers were reluctant to acquire more tonnage, mainly due to the extreme fluctuation of the Indian Rupee against the USD and the prevailing uncertainty on steel prices. The good news however, is that Bangladesh is finally set to ratify its regulations on the 12th January and get the green light from the Court to import vessels once again; therefore we believe that this will bring stability and safety to the market, hence scraping activity should logically pick up again, which is of course good news for the oversupplied market" concluded the Piraeus-based shipbroker.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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