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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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