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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
 To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and they were genuinely awful, they look positively effervescent compared to today.
Coal markets now?
Demand: weak. Supply: excessive. Prices: tumbling. Margins: emaciated.
Who can blame coal producers for rushing to close the books on a really bad year and shifting their gazes to tomorrow?
Ah, but what might tomorrow bring? No help from across the Atlantic. It may not be running away from coal, but Europe is at least swiftly walking. In the US, low natural gas prices and steady political pressure will further depress already weak coal demand and prices. Latin American and African demand are, well, as inconsequential as always.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese seaborne market dominance has faded as the country snubs coal while simultaneously (and contrarily) protecting domestic producers. Only India and southeast Asia will increase imports, but just modestly. So, across the industry, 2016 promises more pain than gain.
It’s what producers won’t do that matters most. They won’t sufficiently rationalize production to balance supply and demand. They won’t, because most of them can’t, repair debt-laden balance sheets and that will leave many vulnerable and their bond-holders squeamish. They won’t find it easy to re-capitalize their mines because financers are backing away from coal.
Coal producers are going to suffer through another painful year, perhaps even worse than the last one. In fact, producers are facing several years, if not decades, of low prices, anaemic demand, chronic overcapacity and “margins” that would scare most non-coal businesses into closing their doors. But not coal producers.
This is a resilient and optimistic bunch, accustomed to long periods of low real prices and profitless years. They have been here before although they will find that this extended poor market is just the beginning. With concentrated global action underway to address climate change and with the cost of renewable energy on a swift and impressive decline, many coal producers may finally meet their Waterloo. A long, slow harvest is inescapable.
There will be survivors, of course, who will be focused on strategies that lower cost and allow them to compete. Others will turn to long-term strategies that could include energy diversification. But these steps will not alleviate the pain that all coal producers must face in the next few years.
So, coal producers may have found a lump of coal in their Christmas stocking in 2015, but even that will look good by Christmas 2016 … and 2017 … and 2018. For many, better prospects are a rapidly fading memory.
-Andy Roberts | Wood Mackenzie -
About Andy Roberts
Roberts is a mining engineer with a background in operations, planning and market analysis. He has worked in the coal, base metal, oil shale, tar sand and uranium businesses. In 2008, Andy joined Wood Mackenzie where in his consulting and research role he uses fundamental analysis to help his clients understand.
About Wood Mackenzie
As a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, Wood Mackenzi provides objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. (http://www.woodmac.com/blog)
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Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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