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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
 To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and they were genuinely awful, they look positively effervescent compared to today.
Coal markets now?
Demand: weak. Supply: excessive. Prices: tumbling. Margins: emaciated.
Who can blame coal producers for rushing to close the books on a really bad year and shifting their gazes to tomorrow?
Ah, but what might tomorrow bring? No help from across the Atlantic. It may not be running away from coal, but Europe is at least swiftly walking. In the US, low natural gas prices and steady political pressure will further depress already weak coal demand and prices. Latin American and African demand are, well, as inconsequential as always.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese seaborne market dominance has faded as the country snubs coal while simultaneously (and contrarily) protecting domestic producers. Only India and southeast Asia will increase imports, but just modestly. So, across the industry, 2016 promises more pain than gain.
It’s what producers won’t do that matters most. They won’t sufficiently rationalize production to balance supply and demand. They won’t, because most of them can’t, repair debt-laden balance sheets and that will leave many vulnerable and their bond-holders squeamish. They won’t find it easy to re-capitalize their mines because financers are backing away from coal.
Coal producers are going to suffer through another painful year, perhaps even worse than the last one. In fact, producers are facing several years, if not decades, of low prices, anaemic demand, chronic overcapacity and “margins” that would scare most non-coal businesses into closing their doors. But not coal producers.
This is a resilient and optimistic bunch, accustomed to long periods of low real prices and profitless years. They have been here before although they will find that this extended poor market is just the beginning. With concentrated global action underway to address climate change and with the cost of renewable energy on a swift and impressive decline, many coal producers may finally meet their Waterloo. A long, slow harvest is inescapable.
There will be survivors, of course, who will be focused on strategies that lower cost and allow them to compete. Others will turn to long-term strategies that could include energy diversification. But these steps will not alleviate the pain that all coal producers must face in the next few years.
So, coal producers may have found a lump of coal in their Christmas stocking in 2015, but even that will look good by Christmas 2016 … and 2017 … and 2018. For many, better prospects are a rapidly fading memory.
-Andy Roberts | Wood Mackenzie -
About Andy Roberts
Roberts is a mining engineer with a background in operations, planning and market analysis. He has worked in the coal, base metal, oil shale, tar sand and uranium businesses. In 2008, Andy joined Wood Mackenzie where in his consulting and research role he uses fundamental analysis to help his clients understand.
About Wood Mackenzie
As a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, Wood Mackenzi provides objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. (http://www.woodmac.com/blog)
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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