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Tuesday, 09 March 10
STRONG REBOUND IN ALL THE DRY BULK SEGMENTS THIS WEEK


Barry Rogliano SallesThere was a strong rebound in all the dry bulk segments this week, leading to an 18% jump in the Baltic Dry Index.

The Cape and Panamax markets saw large spikes driven by activity in the Atlantic and a tight tonnage situation saw charterers offering high rates in order to pull ships over from the east. The Panamax market remains strong and the BPI continues to outpace the BCI. The big news of the week was in the coal market where BHP Billiton announced a new, shorter term pricing structure for a “significant portion” of its hard coking coal volumes for 2010. This will replace the benchmark pricing system, and takes advantage of current high spot rates. BHP said it had reached an agreement with a range of customers throughout Europe, China, India and Japan. According to reports, it has already struck a deal with Japan’s JFE Steel for the three months starting 1 April at US$200 per tonne. This represents a 10% discount on the current spot rate, but a 55% premium on last year’s benchmark price. 

Supra/Handy
In the Atlantic, the week started with a firm Handysize market due to the lack of tonnage in the USG area and a surge in grain and sugar cargoes out of ECSA. The ECSA/Cont route rose almost US$2,000/day to close at around US$27,000/day and USG/ Cont firmed up to the low-mid US$30,000s for Cont destination. We even saw some ballasters coming from the west Med, getting close to US$19,000 for ECSA round voyage. In the Supramax market, conditions slowly but surely firmed in the middle of the week due to busy conditions in both the ECSA and USG. Supramax were getting fixed close to US$40,000/day for USG/Cont trip and about US$25,000/day for WAF/Cont-Med trip via ECSA. This activity pushed operators to take some Supramax tonnage for short period at low-mid US$30,000s for 3/5 mos redelivery worldwide.  In the Pacific, the market improved steadily in the early part of the week with the Indian market as the main catalyst. However this trend was short-lived. We saw a spike in period enquiries with several vessels fixed on subjects in the upper US$20,000s for short period and low US$20,000s for 1-yr period, though we understand most did not manage to lift subjects.  In the Nopac area, owners were asking mid US$20,000s for trip but few charterers were willing to pay.

WCI Supra were fixed in the low US$40,000s and ECI candidates were negotiated in the upper US$30,000s. A Handymax open ECI was also reported fixed at around a healthy US$28,000 for a RBCT round voyage.

Panamax 
A busy week of fixing in the Panamax market ensued as rates rose sharply for a second consecutive week. The BPI witnessed a rise of 604 points and US$4,873 on the 4 time charter average as the market firmed across the board. Rates in the east jumped up dramatically with rates hovering now in the low US$30,000s, helped by a large appetite for short period of up to 1 year. There were a host of fixtures concluded, and short period rates are now in the low US$30,000s while 1-year rates are in the upper US$20,000s. Tonnage remained tight still in the Atlantic, pushing rates up further and here we saw charterers picking off open tonnage in the Far East for USG and ECSA round voyages, adding even more momentum to the Pacific market.

Capesize 
A busy week saw Capesize rates leap upwards again and by Friday the four time charter average was back hovering below the magic level of US$40,000 a day. A very tight Atlantic market saw some charterers struggling to find tonnage and rates had to rise sufficiently to attract ships from further afield. Overall the BCI rose 24% to 3,900 points, while the 4TC rose from US$28,370 to US$37,800/day. In the event, rates appeared to peak on Friday and Monday saw levels fall back. However with demand still strong for early tonnage in the Atlantic, and FFA prices at around US$37,700 for second-quarter trading, it seems the market is quite tightly balanced.
Source: BRS



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