We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 30 January 10
THE ECI / CHINA (S7) ROUTE SOFTENED BY $ 5,736 AND CLOSED AT $ 27,360 PER DAY - VISTAAR SHIPPING
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market continued to soften this week probably in anticipation of Chinese New year holidays.
BDI INDEX
...
Saturday, 30 January 10
INDONESIA TO CONSTRUCT 93 POWER PLANTS IN 2ND PROJECT
The government has announced its list of 93 power plants to be built under the second 10,000-megawatt (MW) power generation scheme.
"With th ...
Saturday, 30 January 10
COAL FIRMS TO KEEP NATION IN THE BLACK
Some Indonesian coal mining companies on Friday pledged to allocate a greater share of their production this year to meet domestic market obligation ...
Friday, 29 January 10
INDIA STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DOUBLE, BOOST SOUTH AFRICA
* SAfrica seen shipping 75 pct of its coal to Asia in 2010
* Logistics woes hamper SAfrica exports, India imports
India's steam coal imports ar ...
Thursday, 28 January 10
THE IRON ORE EXPORTS FROM INDIA TO CHINA ARE DOWN AND THE RATES DROPPED
HANDY
The BSI has continued its downward trend confirming the softening of the Atlantic since the previous week and reflecting a correction of the ...
|
|
|
Showing 6041 to 6045 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
|
| |
| |
|
