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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Thursday, 04 February 10
COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO REACH 280 MILLION METRIC TONS - INDONESIA UPDATE
Indonesia`s coal production target for 2010 has been set at 275 million to 280 million metric tons, according to the Association of Indonesian Coal ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
MASSEY CEO 'NOT EXCITED' ABOUT PROSPECT OF QUARTERLY COAL PRICING
US coal producer Massey Energy is not in favour of switching to a quarterly pricing schedule for metallurgical coal, from the current annual price b ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
BUKIT ASAM GOES SHOPPING FOR MORE COAL MINES
State-owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam has set aside Rp 1.5 trillion ($162 million) to acquire two coal mines in East Kalimantan, pre ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
PTT EYES OVERSEAS COAL
Revenue could reachUS$600 million a year
PTT Plc, Thailand's largest energy company, aims to raise the annual revenue from its overseas coal bus ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
RI TO GRADUALLY STOP COAL EXPORTS
Indonesia, which over the past few years has become the world`s third largest coal exporter after Australia and China, is planning to gradually stop ...
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Showing 6026 to 6030 news of total 6871 |
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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