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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Thursday, 18 March 10
INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO BEAT EARLIER FORECAST
The Jakarta Globe reported that, the government expects coal output this year to exceed its initial projection of 250 million metric tons as the dri ...
Thursday, 18 March 10
COAL PILING UP AT EAST COAST PORTS ON RAKE SHORTAGE
Business Line reported that, more than three million tonnes (mt) of imported coal are awaiting evacuation at the east coast ports of Paradip, Visakh ...
Tuesday, 16 March 10
INDONESIA ROUND VOYAGES WERE GETTING BETWEEN HIGH TEENS - BRS
Another strong week for the bulk market and rates in all segments are now back above pre-Chinese New Year levels. Atlantic volumes remain robust, an ...
Tuesday, 16 March 10
MADHUCON GETS MINING LICENSE IN INDONESIA
Business-Standard reported that, PT Madhucon Indonesia, a subsidiary of the Hyderabad-based infrastructure company Madhucon Projects Ltd, has been g ...
Monday, 15 March 10
BOB KAMANDANU ON INDONESIAS PEAK COAL PRODUCTION, ENERGY SECURITY AND EXPORTS TO INDIA
Bob Kamandanu, the chairman of Indonesian Coal Producers Association (APBI), said the country has an estimated 50 to 70 years of coal reserves.
T ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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