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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Thursday, 18 March 10
INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO BEAT EARLIER FORECAST
The Jakarta Globe reported that, the government expects coal output this year to exceed its initial projection of 250 million metric tons as the dri ...
Thursday, 18 March 10
COAL PILING UP AT EAST COAST PORTS ON RAKE SHORTAGE
Business Line reported that, more than three million tonnes (mt) of imported coal are awaiting evacuation at the east coast ports of Paradip, Visakh ...
Tuesday, 16 March 10
INDONESIA ROUND VOYAGES WERE GETTING BETWEEN HIGH TEENS - BRS
Another strong week for the bulk market and rates in all segments are now back above pre-Chinese New Year levels. Atlantic volumes remain robust, an ...
Tuesday, 16 March 10
MADHUCON GETS MINING LICENSE IN INDONESIA
Business-Standard reported that, PT Madhucon Indonesia, a subsidiary of the Hyderabad-based infrastructure company Madhucon Projects Ltd, has been g ...
Monday, 15 March 10
BOB KAMANDANU ON INDONESIAS PEAK COAL PRODUCTION, ENERGY SECURITY AND EXPORTS TO INDIA
Bob Kamandanu, the chairman of Indonesian Coal Producers Association (APBI), said the country has an estimated 50 to 70 years of coal reserves.
T ...
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- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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