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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Tuesday, 11 May 10
DRY BULK RATES SHOOT UP ON STRONG CARGO DEMAND
The dry bulk industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has kept its momentum, as predicted by analysts and shipping experts, managing t ...
Saturday, 08 May 10
THE FUTURES FOR THREE YEARS (2010-2012) WAS AT AROUND PANAMAX / $ 21500 & SUPRAMAX / $ 18500 PER DAY - VISTAAR SHIPPING
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to go up and was up by 7.57 pct even though the stock markets was severely affected with worries on Greek debt crisi ...
Saturday, 08 May 10
MAHAGENCO TO IMPORT 3.35 MILLION TON OF COAL
COALspot.com: Indian utility Maharashtra State Power Generation Co. Ltd. is in market for 3.35 million tones of imported coal. The purchase of coal ...
Saturday, 08 May 10
NAPOCOR BUYS 122,000 TONS COAL - ABC CBN NEWS
ABC - CBN News reported that, State-run National Power Corp. (Napocor) said on Thursday it awarded 2 contracts for the supply of a total 122,000 ton ...
Saturday, 08 May 10
RICHARDS BAY COAL SHIPMENTS FALL TO AN 11-MONTH LOW - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Coal shipments from Richards Bay Coal Terminal, Africa’s biggest export facility for the fuel, fell to an 11-month lo ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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