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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Friday, 28 May 10
CHINESE BAN TO HIT INDIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS
Nearly half of India's iron ore exports to China are in serious danger of being wiped out. The local government has imposed a ban on import of low ...
Friday, 28 May 10
INDIAS NEYVELI LIGNITE EYEING INDONESIA, SOUTH AFRICA COAL MINES
Integrated mining and power producer Neyveli Lignite Corporation Thursday said it is exploring possibilities for buying coal mines in Indonesia and ...
Friday, 28 May 10
ADARO ACQUIRES 25% ICP AT US$ 335 MIO
Indonesia's second largest thermal coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) today announces formation of new joint venture for Indonesian Coal Project ...
Thursday, 27 May 10
KPCL IS LOOKING FOR 0.50 MLN TON TO IMPORTED STEAMING COAL FOR RAICHUR THERMAL POWER STATION
COALspot.com: KARNATAKA POWER CORPORATION LIMITED, India invited from reputed parties meeting the pre qualifications stipulated for the import ...
Thursday, 27 May 10
TNPL TO BUY 0.240 MLN TON NON-COKING COAL FOR SECOND HALF OF 2010
COALspot.com: Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited (TNPL), would like to procure 0.24 mln MT of imported Non-Coking Coal in 6 Shipments of about ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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