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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Tuesday, 12 January 10
COAL PRICE FORECAST RAISED AT ANZ ON STRONGER CHINESE DEMAND
Power-station coal price forecasts for this year were raised 19 percent by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. on rising demand from Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 January 10
BUMIS SALE CONTRACT ONLY REACHED 35 PERCENT
PT Bumi Resources has only completed 35 percent if its coal sale contract this year. “More than 65 percent of our sale volume did not have a c ...
Monday, 11 January 10
THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market for the first week of the year was quite active and the market especially in the Panamax and Supramax s ...
Monday, 11 January 10
CHINAS COAL EXPORT MAY DECLINE 50% IN 2009
Preliminary data released by China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Wednesday showed that China's coal export reached 2.05 million ton ...
Saturday, 09 January 10
THE FAR EAST MARKET STARTED TO STABILIZE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The FEAST market started to stabilize after the quite holidays and we saw growing activity fed by Chinese coal and iron ore imports and Indi ...
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Showing 6101 to 6105 news of total 6871 |
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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