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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Thursday, 04 February 10
COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO REACH 280 MILLION METRIC TONS - INDONESIA UPDATE
Indonesia`s coal production target for 2010 has been set at 275 million to 280 million metric tons, according to the Association of Indonesian Coal ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
MASSEY CEO 'NOT EXCITED' ABOUT PROSPECT OF QUARTERLY COAL PRICING
US coal producer Massey Energy is not in favour of switching to a quarterly pricing schedule for metallurgical coal, from the current annual price b ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
BUKIT ASAM GOES SHOPPING FOR MORE COAL MINES
State-owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam has set aside Rp 1.5 trillion ($162 million) to acquire two coal mines in East Kalimantan, pre ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
PTT EYES OVERSEAS COAL
Revenue could reachUS$600 million a year
PTT Plc, Thailand's largest energy company, aims to raise the annual revenue from its overseas coal bus ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
RI TO GRADUALLY STOP COAL EXPORTS
Indonesia, which over the past few years has become the world`s third largest coal exporter after Australia and China, is planning to gradually stop ...
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Showing 6026 to 6030 news of total 6871 |
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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