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Thursday, 18 February 10
DECOUPLING FROM OIL PRICES ON STRONG GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND


A recent coal market conference in Singapore focused on two main issues –— the demand for coal as a source of energy, and coal pricing. 

Spokespersons from different countries, including Thailand, South Korea, Mongolia, India and China highlighted their domestic  demand for power generation, with coal as their main source of energy, thereby limiting coal exports. 

The views were in line with ours that coal demand will remain buoyant in the mid-to-long term since it is a cheaper source of energy relative to oil and gas.  Demand for energy will remain strong as about 60 percent of the world’s population has partial or no access to electricity.

Demand for coal as a source of energy is growing faster than for other sources.  In 2000-2008, the average annual demand growth rate for coal was 4.7 percent, higher than for gas at 2.7 percent and 1.4 percent for oil. 

“Japan’s coal demand is expected to slow on the back of two factors:
1. the Japanese government policy to  reduce carbon dioxide emissions
 2. Japan’s new tax law on coal will reduce the cost effectiveness of using it”
 

A World Energy Agency analyst says power generation based on all types of energy except oil is projected to grow.  With world energy demand to grow at 40 percent between 2007 and 2030 and an estimated 1.3B people or 16 percent of the world’s population still lacking electricity by 2030, long-term demand for coal will rise most in absolute terms.

Speakers from India and China were also very positive on coal demand, given their rising power needs.  The Indian government is projected to add 78 gigawatts (GW) of power by 2012, while power demand is expected to rise from 147 GW now to 950 GW by 2030.

 China is expecting to double its power needs by 2020.  About 60 percent of coal output in 2007-2030 is projected to come from China.

Spokespersons from Thailand and Vietnam highlighted their domestic coal needs for power projects, so reducing coal supply to export markets.  Vietnam now supplies about 50 percent or 24 million tons of its coal for exports, but going forward this will fall to 3 million tons, despite production rising from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons by 2025. For Thailand, coal consumption is going to increase from 34.5 million tons in 2008 to 48.6 million tons by 2021.

Only the speaker from Mongolia said it’s coal reserves of 162.3 billion tons would enable it to increase supply to the international market.

Separately, Japan’s coal demand is expected to slow on the back of two factors: 1. the Japanese government  policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions  and 2. Japan’s new tax law on coal will reduce the cost effectiveness of using it. 

Closer to home, 2009 coal output in Indonesia increased to 240 million tons, with exports accounting for 70 percent.  This percentage will gradually reduce as domestic coal demand rises with more coal-fired power projects. Indonesia is expected to add 20GW of power by 2015. The electricity sector now absorbs 65 percent of domestic coal consumption with the cement industry as the second largest consumer. 

Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line, Indonesia’s leading shipping company, expects coal to account for 33 percent of the country’s total energy mix by 2025, up from 19 percent now.

As energy demand remains strong world wide, coal consumption will continue to increase going forward. Strong coal demand could result in decoupling between oil and coal prices, with  continued upward trends in future coal prices.
Source: The Jakarta Post



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