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Tuesday, 16 February 10
TRENDS DRY BULK MARKET ... TRENDS - BRS


The start of the Chinese New Year had an immediate impact on rates and for once all the dry bulk segments lost similar ground.

The BDI fell 5%, and will start the holiday period at just over 2,500 points. Overall the market has lost about 20% of its value since the start of the year. However it is interesting to note that the futures market is predicting an improvement in Cape rates (though not Panamax and Supra rates) in the second quarter after the Chinese holidays are over.  In the news, there was growing comment over the annual ore contract. BHP Billiton and Vale declared the 2010 price levels should reflect conditions on the spot market, where prices are currently around double last year’s level. Chinese buyers meanwhile were reported as be willing to accept 40%. Given recent ore and steel forecasts, buyers will be expected to increase their contribution; the question is by how much. Independent UK-based steel consultant MEPS claimed this week global steel output could hit a record high of 1,350m tonnes in 2010, with around half coming from China.

“BHP Billiton and Vale declared the 2010 price levels should reflect conditions on the spot market, where prices are currently around double last year’s level”
 

SUPRA/HANDY
It is difficult at this stage to assess whether Handies and Supras have bottomed out but at least the general feeling is that some sort of support has been reached. The Pacific round voyage now stands around US$16,000 when the Atlantic lies close to US$20,000. Demand for trip out to the east remains strong on the back of sugar and grains out of Brazil. The US Gulf saw a significant slow down with Supras hardly able to achieve more than mid US$3000 for trip to the Mediterranean Sea. Overall the Chinese holidays will no doubt impact the trade.

PANAMAX 
The market drifted downwards over the week as Far Eastern players slowly disappeared for the impending holidays. Transatlantic round voyages started the week in the mid-high US$20,000s but by the end of the week were being traded closer to the US$24,000 mark. By contrast the Pacific became very positional with rates varying from a low of US$23,000 to a high of US$29,000 over the week for a vessel delivery southeast Asia for a west Australia round voyage.

However, for both basins, fixing volumes were thin. There was little period activity of note to talk about with such a large gap between the bid/offer spread, although a couple of short period deals were concluded in the east at around the US$26,000 level. Overall the BPI saw a loss of 113 points and the 4 time charter average reported a decline of US$894 over the week 

CAPESIZE 
It has been a month since the Capesize market logged any Friday-to-Friday gains, and with Chinese New Year upon us, it was no surprise that rates took another fall this week. The four time charter average is now back to below US$30,000 per day. Indeed Friday’s rate of US$29,259 was the lowest level seen in the Cape market since October last year. The market expects some pick-up after the Chinese holiday, however, and second quarter prices in the FFA market are currently trading at nearly US$33,000 per day. Rates were little changed on Monday, rising around 10 points on the end of the previous week.  
Source: BRS Dry Bulk



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