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Tuesday, 05 January 10
SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED QUIET OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS BRS - DRY BULK


Despite a damp end to the year for bulk rates, shipping has weathered the storm far better than was initially expected in the wake of the financial crisis. As of 24 December, the indices were showing 3,005 points for the BDI, 3,887 for the BCI, 3,567 for the BPI, 2,224 for the BSI and 1,159 for the Handysizes. With the exception of the Capesizes, these rates are all higher than the average for 2009, and overall the BDI has only lost around 50% of its value compared to 2008.

This is a far cry from the lows seen in late 2008 when rates lost nearly 90% of their value. Looking forward, market sentiment is still relatively positive for the short-term. This is especially the case if Chinese buyers start to stockpile ahead of an anticipated increase in ore prices.

Adding to the momentum, Vale said this week it expected to increase 2010 ore output back up to 2008 levels. India’s decision to introduce new ore export tariffs is not expected to have a huge impact meanwhile. Although some believe this will push China further into the arms of the ‘big three’ ore producers, putting further pressure on ore prices, others argue that steel mills will be able to absorb the extra cost given today’s steel prices. For their part, India’s exporters believe the new duties will reduce exports by about 6 million tonnes in the current fiscal year, a decline of 5%. 

Capesize 
After losing 15% in the week before Christmas, the Cape market quickly bounced back into action in the New Year, recording a +300 point gain on the first day of 2010 trading. As of 4 January 2010, the BDI stood at 4,197 points, while the four time charter average was hovering just short of the US$ 40,000 mark, at US$39,978.

Despite the sharp drop in spot prices at the end of the year, the paper market remained strong with forward rates for 2010 and 2011 actually rising. At 31 December, first-quarter 2010 contracts were trading at US$43,000. Meanwhile in the charter market, one-year time charters were trading around the US$35,000 per day mark. 

Panamax 
Despite Christmas and the New Year holidays, market sentiment remained positive for the short-term, with rates picking up in both the Atlantic and Pacific regions. 

Today we heard of a one-year deal being concluded on an LME with prompt Atlantic delivery at an improved US$27,000. The vessel has now been relet by sub charterers for a Transatlantic round voyage at US$36,500, which represents an increase of around US$4,000 compared to pre-Christmas levels.

The Pacific in turn has seen rates increase at similar levels with reports of US$28,000 being done today by a grain house for a Nopac round voyage although this was positional and there would appear to be no immediate shortage of tonnage in this basin. With the FFA market supporting physical too, we are starting to see short/long buyers looking for the right opportunities. 

Supra/Handy 
The market remained quiet over the last 10 days with most charterers having cleared their desks before the holidays.

There remained a few spot vessels here and there, but the underlying sentiment remained firm. A prospectively busy January should keep the steam up from the Continent and USA, where there are still scrap, petcoke and fertilizer cargoes to cover.

India remains hot, and there were rumours of a Supramax fixed in the upper US$30,000s.

Meanwhile the Far East/South East Asia region is still benefiting from the Chinese appetite for coal, iron ore, nickel ore and bauxite from Indonesia, Philippines and Australia.

Source: BRS Dry Bulk



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