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Monday, 28 December 09
NEED TO IMPORT COAL COMES EARLY
 Viet Nam may need to start importing coal as early as 2012, three years earlier than expected, to meet its electricity demands.
The Viet Nam Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) said it would be able to supply enough coal for the nation's electricity needs until 2011 but would need to start importing it in 2012.
The need to import parallels the country's demand for electricity, which is expected to increase by 17-20 per cent a year, according to a report by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Due to the country's rising reliance on thermal power generation and the Government's increasing power generation targets, much more coal than is currently being produced domestically would be needed. Dr. Pham Khanh Toan, director of the Institute of Energy of Viet Nam, said at a recent international conference in Ha Noi.
Toan said that the sector was already failing to meet Government targets as in the fourth quarter of 2009 the domestic electricity industry produced an extra 1,400 MW instead of the targeted additional 3.393MW.
Toan said this year's total output would be much lower than the Government's target.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade report said that in order to meet electricity demands for the period from now to 2025, Viet Nam will need about 4,000 MW more every year. As hydropower resources have nearly been fully exploited, and natural gas resources are limited, the country will have to rely on coal-run thermal power plants.
The report stated the demand for coal for power production is estimated to hit 32.5 million tonnes in 2013 and 44 million tonnes in 2015.
Vinacomin estimated that the volume of imported coal would be around 10 million tonnes in 2012. It will be increasing year by year and reach about 28 million tonnes in 2015 and 66 million tonnes in 2020. The majority of imported coal would be for thermal power plants.
Independent analysts said the coming shortage of the fossil fuel was due to continuous overexploitation and overexport of the country's coal resources.
Since 2004, the volume of coal that Viet Nam has exported has increased five-fold, reaching 32.5 million tonnes in 2007. This does not include the illegal export of 10 million tonnes a year.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment in 2006 warned that if the Government did not take measures to limit coal exports, the important natural resource would become exhausted, while Viet Nam needs to ensure energy security for the future.
Ministry experts also warned recently that the country would pay dearly for future coal imports, since the money earned from exports could only buy back a third of the volume.
Taking coal exports in 2007 as an example, they said the US$1.018 billion earned from exporting 32.5 million tonnes, would have only bought 7.5 million tonnes one year later (2008).
Despite the warnings, coal exports in 2007 were still very high, registering a year on year increase of 11 per cent.
The coal industry still plans, however, to continue coal exports at large volumes even when the country's coal resources are running low.
At present, Vinacomin can exploit over 50 million tonnes of coal a year, of which 15-20 million tonnes are provided for the domestic consumers, while the remaining is for export mainly to mainland China. The company expects to export 22.5 million tonnes of coal by the end of this year, accounting for more than half of its total output.
A representative of Vinacomin explained by saying that domestic coal prices were lower than export rates, while the domestic coal industry was in dire need of capital for upgrading technology and equipment.
Experts said the annual domestic coal supply had reached a limit since the country's open-cut mines were being exhausted.
The Quang Ninh Coal Mine in the same name province, which is the country's main coal producer, is a typical example. Although the mine had total reserves of 10.5 billion tonnes, it was running low because of constant overexploitation for more than 100 years.
Dr Nguyen Thanh Son, director of the Song Hong Energy Company, said that over the past 13 years if Vinacomin had not focused on just exporting coal but intensifying investments into improving its production and trading efficiency, the coal imports could have been delayed for dozens of years.
Import challenges
Related industries said that while coal importation was inevitable it would not be an easy task.
Experts from Vinacomin said coal resources were rapidly diminishing because more countries in the world were building big thermal power plants.
Consequently there would be strong competition from countries like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan who have existing long term coal import contracts with major suppliers such as Australia and Indonesia.
Another obstacle is the lack of infrastructure such as ports to import coal.
Vinacomin recently decided to set up a task group responsible to draw up coal import plans and find coal suppliers.
The group members will include Government officials and leaders of relevant industries.
Source: VietNamNet/Viet Nam News
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