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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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