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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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