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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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