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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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