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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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