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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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