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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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