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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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