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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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