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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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