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Sunday, 22 November 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AT US$ 25,000/26,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - VISTAAR ANALYSIS
 COALspot.com (Singapore): Analyised by Capt. Radhakrishnan Reddy, Managing Director of Vistaar Shipping Services, Singapore.
BDI hits a new high this week at 4,507 points with all other index also going up this week. The BDI increased this week by 396 points up by 9.6 pct. The increase on cape index this week was 359 points up by 5 pct. The Panamax index also maintained the momentum as last week and increased by 466 points up by 11.2 pct and closed at 4,424 points. The Supramax index was up by 340 points up by 16 pct and closed at 2,487 points. The handysize index increased by 118 points up by 12 pct and closed at 1,088 points.
The average charter hire was at Cape / US$ 81,567 per day, Panamax / US$ 35,597 per day , Supramax / US$ 26,009 per day and Handysize / US$ 15,703 pday.
The supramax index in the Far East (S6 route) was quite firm this week at US$ 25,563 per day which is up by almost 22 pct compared to last week. The ECI / China (S7) route was quite firm at US$ 26,735 per day which is up by almost 16 pct compared to last week.
Short period rates for Supramax was at US$ 25,000/26,000 per day for vessels opening Far Eeast / SE Asia. Supramax charter rates for one yea is around US$ 19,000 / 20,000 per day.
THREE YEARS FUTURE
The futures for three years (2010-2012) was almost same as last week and was around Cape / US$ 30,000 per day, Panamax / US$ 17,500 per day, Supramax / US$ 15,500 per day, Handysize / US$ 11,500 per day.
According to data from the World Steel Association, October world crude steel production hit a 14-month high of 112.2 Mt, posting a 13% increase year-on-year. This is the second month in a row when global steel output represented a year-on-year increase. The majority of this increase was due to China and the CIS, which registered growth of 42.4% and 26.9% year-on-year with monthly production at 51.7 Mt and 9.0 Mt respectively.
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which hit a fresh 2009 high this week, should no longer be seen as an accurate gauge of the world economy, but rather a measure of reviving Chinese industrial activity. With about 90 percent of the world's traded goods by volume transported by sea, a resurgence in seaborne freight movement would be a major sign of a world economic recovery.
Indeed, lately, the Baltic index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping resources, including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, has been climbing and hit a new 2009 high this week. But analysts and shipping industry officials said the rise in the index was driven by Chinese demand for iron ore, coal and grains, as well as rising port congestion in Australia and China, and did not necessarily bode for a broader world recovery.
'It is not really Japan, European or other Asian demand that is driving this (rally). It continues to be China,' Martin Sommerseth Jaer, analyst with Arctic Securities, said.
The main index, which was launched in 1985, has remained volatile this year due to swings in demand by China for iron ore -- the primary material in the manufacture of steel.
'Last year, the BDI did work quite effectively as a global economic indicator,' Peter Malpas, group research manager with shipbroker Braemar Seascope, said. 'This year it definitely has not.' The Baltic Exchange said it had never set out to provide economic insight and analysis through the main index, 'but an independent and accurate view' of the cost of moving dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal by sea.
'With so many factors coming into play and driving freight rates, what these figures mean for the wider economy is for economists to decide,' a Baltic Exchange spokesman said.
FLEET STRENGTH
Strong appetite for iron ore and coal in India and China and other industrial activity helped push the Baltic index to a record high in May 2008 of 11,793. But global turmoil, compounded by a reduction in demand for raw materials, manufactured goods and consumer products drove it back down to as low as 663 in December.
The volatility this year on the main index has been also been driven by the availability of large capsize ships, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rather than signals of appetite for raw materials from the wider economy.
In June and November, when the main index rallied, port congestion in China, as well as at coal ports in Australia, tightened the availability of ships, helping to sustain gains.
'The BDI is a reflection of both supply and demand. At the moment, it is being led up by the capes. Clearly congestion has returned,' Nigel Prentis, head of research, consulting and advisory with HSBC Shipping Services Ltd, said.
Analysts say a major factor that is likely to weaken the BDI's connection with the world economy in the coming months is the rising number of new ships set to hit the market in 2010, despite indications of some vessel cancellations and delays.
Shipbroker SSY has estimated net fleet growth in the dry bulk sector of around 40 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) this year versus around 27 million dwt in 2008.
'Trying to look at the BDI as a forward indicator of global demand recovery is a bit risky because we have this supply overhang and that will obviously play a big part in the BDI going forward,' HSBC's Prentis said.
Analysts said the BDI needed a relatively stable fleet level and global commodity demand not just from China for the index to reflect world activity.
'What we could witness particularly in the second half of next year when the majority of ships are delivered is the global world economy going up, but the BDI coming down because the BDI will be reflecting the growing size of the fleet,' Braemar Seascope's Malpas said. 'As the fleet grows, the supply side of the market increases and that creates a lower utilisation of the fleet which will obviously reduce freight rates.'
Malpas said it could be two or three years before the fleet profile would stabilise.
'Obviously not too many new orders will be coming out of the yards post 2012, we may get another period when the BDI is essentially being driven solely by commodity demand,' he said. (Source : Reuters)
The congestion in Australia increased to 124 vessels in EC Australia with maximum waiting at DBCT 30/40 days , whereas Haypoint was around 10/12 days and Newcastle was around 14/16 days. The waiting at WC Australia for iron ore was at 9 vessels.
CRUDE OIL
The brent crude prices remained firm this week at US$ 77.55 per barrel . The bunker prices during the week touched for IFO 380 cst at US$ 475 pmt, however the prices softened by Friday 20th Nov at around US$ 466 pmt for IFO (380 cst) prices ex Singapore.
FREIGHT FORECAST
Click here for Vistaar’ s forecasted (terms & conditions apply) spot freight rates for coal & Iron-ore cargo for specific routes(cs)
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Monday, 23 November 09
INDONESIA MINING RULE THREATENS INVESTMENT DRIVE
A new Indonesian mining rule, limiting contract work that can be outsourced and favouring local players, is shaping up as a new blow to plans ...
Friday, 20 November 09
INDONESIA UNITED TRACTORS PLANS $430 MLN CAPEX IN 2010
Reuters reported that, Indonesian heavy equipment distributor and mining contractor PT United Tractors Tbk plans capital expenditure of $430 million ...
Friday, 20 November 09
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS HOPE RALLY WILL LAST
Boon times are still on the daily agenda of every dry bulk ship owner these days after one of the toughest year in the industry’s century-old ...
Friday, 20 November 09
NTPC LOOKING FOR LONG TERM CONTRACTS FOR COAL IMPORT
Business Standard of India reported that, State run power firm NTPC today said it is looking for long-term supply of coal from overseas market to me ...
Friday, 20 November 09
CHINESE COKING COAL SUPPLY TO BE 'TIGHT' IN 2010, KGI SAYS
Bloomberg Reported that, Stephen Wang, an analyst with KGI Securities in Taipei, comments on the outlook for Chinese steel production and demand for ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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