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Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
 Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited direct near-term credit impact for energy-sector issuers rated by Fitch Ratings, according to the agency. However, the caps highlight that energy companies face mounting political risks that could influence investor perceptions of the sector and capex plans over the long term.
The caps have been proposed for 12 months, but even if they are extended, the direct impact should generally be limited if prices for coal and gas fall over the coming years, in line with Fitch’s base-case assumptions.
The near-term impact on Australian thermal coal miners’ financial profiles will be further mitigated, as typically around 80% of the thermal coal produced in the country is exported, and therefore is not subject to the cap.
The natural gas sector will be more exposed, as domestic demand accounts for a larger share of supply. Santos (BBB/Stable) and Woodside Energy Group (BBB+/Stable) are large suppliers of gas to the domestic market. Such sales account for more than 40% of Santos’s gas production, but we estimate that only around 15% of total production goes to the east coast markets that are exposed to the price cap.
Woodside’s domestic gas sales, including pipeline gas from the NWS Project, Pluto and Wheatstone, account for less than 6% of its gas production, with the rest exported as LNG. For both companies, most gas is already produced under long-term contracts, which will be unaffected by the caps, limiting the near-term impact. The proportion of output affected could nonetheless rise over time if the caps are extended beyond 12 months.
The prevalence of long-term supply contracts will also reduce the impact of the caps for most domestic electricity and gas retailers, including Origin Energy (BBB/Stable). If global energy prices remain high, it is possible that the caps could offer a competitive advantage to some retailers that rely more on short-term supply contracts. That said, the superior sourcing ability and flexibility in contracts should limit downside risks for large retailers. For electricity sales, the highest-cost power generator generally determines the wholesale energy market price, and we anticipate a neutral to marginally positive financial effect for entities like Origin that have flexibility in their generation portfolio.
The price caps will add to a perception that Australia’s mining sector faces mounting political risk, even though we do not believe they will have a major impact on Fitch-rated issuers in the near term. For example, the government has announced plans to implement a new system to protect sites important to Australia’s indigenous peoples. Firms in the sector, as in other parts of the world, also face political risks associated with official efforts to promote the transition to renewable energy sources.
Mounting political risk may influence investors’ perceptions of the sector, and therefore the terms on which companies are able to access finance. This could also have ramifications for M&A plans or long-term capex strategies. Nonetheless, it is likely to take time to assess the impact, which may also be offset by other market developments.
Australia’s parliament on 16 December passed legislation empowering the government to regulate gas prices, alongside an AUD1.5 billion relief package for firms and households. It remains unclear how the relief package will affect power and gas market dynamics, but we expect its impact to be temporary. The authorities plan to cap domestic gas prices at AUD12 per gigajoule. Domestic thermal coal sales prices in New South Wales and Queensland will also be capped at AUD125 per tonne.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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