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Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
 Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited direct near-term credit impact for energy-sector issuers rated by Fitch Ratings, according to the agency. However, the caps highlight that energy companies face mounting political risks that could influence investor perceptions of the sector and capex plans over the long term.
The caps have been proposed for 12 months, but even if they are extended, the direct impact should generally be limited if prices for coal and gas fall over the coming years, in line with Fitch’s base-case assumptions.
The near-term impact on Australian thermal coal miners’ financial profiles will be further mitigated, as typically around 80% of the thermal coal produced in the country is exported, and therefore is not subject to the cap.
The natural gas sector will be more exposed, as domestic demand accounts for a larger share of supply. Santos (BBB/Stable) and Woodside Energy Group (BBB+/Stable) are large suppliers of gas to the domestic market. Such sales account for more than 40% of Santos’s gas production, but we estimate that only around 15% of total production goes to the east coast markets that are exposed to the price cap.
Woodside’s domestic gas sales, including pipeline gas from the NWS Project, Pluto and Wheatstone, account for less than 6% of its gas production, with the rest exported as LNG. For both companies, most gas is already produced under long-term contracts, which will be unaffected by the caps, limiting the near-term impact. The proportion of output affected could nonetheless rise over time if the caps are extended beyond 12 months.
The prevalence of long-term supply contracts will also reduce the impact of the caps for most domestic electricity and gas retailers, including Origin Energy (BBB/Stable). If global energy prices remain high, it is possible that the caps could offer a competitive advantage to some retailers that rely more on short-term supply contracts. That said, the superior sourcing ability and flexibility in contracts should limit downside risks for large retailers. For electricity sales, the highest-cost power generator generally determines the wholesale energy market price, and we anticipate a neutral to marginally positive financial effect for entities like Origin that have flexibility in their generation portfolio.
The price caps will add to a perception that Australia’s mining sector faces mounting political risk, even though we do not believe they will have a major impact on Fitch-rated issuers in the near term. For example, the government has announced plans to implement a new system to protect sites important to Australia’s indigenous peoples. Firms in the sector, as in other parts of the world, also face political risks associated with official efforts to promote the transition to renewable energy sources.
Mounting political risk may influence investors’ perceptions of the sector, and therefore the terms on which companies are able to access finance. This could also have ramifications for M&A plans or long-term capex strategies. Nonetheless, it is likely to take time to assess the impact, which may also be offset by other market developments.
Australia’s parliament on 16 December passed legislation empowering the government to regulate gas prices, alongside an AUD1.5 billion relief package for firms and households. It remains unclear how the relief package will affect power and gas market dynamics, but we expect its impact to be temporary. The authorities plan to cap domestic gas prices at AUD12 per gigajoule. Domestic thermal coal sales prices in New South Wales and Queensland will also be capped at AUD125 per tonne.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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