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Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high, even as they moderate from unprecedented levels in 2022. This should keep net leverage at manageable levels for most Fitch-rated entities, supporting adequate rating headroom.
 
We forecast the sector’s median EBITDA-based net leverage to remain low at 0.5x in 2023 (2022: 0.3x), underpinned by strong earnings, with coal prices staying above pre-2022 levels. Cash outlays are likely to be driven by diversification-related investments, with some miners initiating projects to move away from thermal coal amid investors’ heightened ESG concerns and tightening funding access. Nevertheless, most entities have sufficient cash buffers to support these investments. We expect capex requirements at most entities, except at PT ABM Investama Tbk (B+/Stable), to remain low, as none have major growth plans.
 
We also expect entities with a high accumulated cash balance to continue bond buy backs over the next 12 months, taking advantage of price discounts on their bonds to reduce debt and interest expenses. We believe the buy backs will lower refinancing requirements and improve companies’ financial flexibility amid the sector’s evolving funding access due to environmental considerations.
Source: Fitch Ratings


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