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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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