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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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