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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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