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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
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