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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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Showing 36 to 40 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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