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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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