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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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