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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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