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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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