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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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