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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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