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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
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