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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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