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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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