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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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