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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and political challenges in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe. Increased supply from Russia would lower prices, but the revenues from those additional sales would fuel President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
Adding to the problem is a new round of European sanctions set to target Russian oil imports by the end of the year. Such sanctions could push prices even higher – potentially triggering a global recession.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has proposed a solution: Allow Russia to continue exporting oil, but impose a cap on the price Russia can charge. This would help keep a lid on oil prices while ensuring that the US and its allies are not funding Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine.
Yellen has been trying to sell world leaders on the plan, and the G7 Leaders’ communiqué at the end of June expressed openness to the idea. The details are still largely unclear, but the plan would stop Russian seaborne exports by denying Russian oil exporters the insurance they need to underwrite tankers – that is, unless Russia agrees to sell its oil at the price cap. Without insurance, ships bearing Russian oil exports could not access crucial international waterways.
The UK and Europe are in a position to exert considerable leverage. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, 68% of deliveries of Russian crude oil this spring relied on EU, UK, and Norwegian ships. Nearly all of the tankers were insured in the UK, Norway, or Sweden.
If all goes according to plan, Russia would still sell the oil, because the price cap would be set at just above the marginal cost of production. At this price, it would make economic sense for Russia to keep producing, but there would be scant profits left over for war financing. And the additional oil being exported from Russia would put downward pressure on global prices.
Of course, all might not go according to plan. Russia could retaliate by cutting off its oil or natural gas exports, inflicting severe harm on many US allies and global markets. Russia would be betting that it could endure the economic pain for longer than countries that rely on its energy exports could. Or Russia could work around the cap, offering to sell its oil to friendly countries for more than the price cap but less than its price on the open market. Something similar is already happening under the existing sanctions regime: China and India, for example, are purchasing oil from Russia at a discount of around $30 per barrel. And the benefits from the price cap could accrue mainly to refiners rather than households.
Still, the cap should be implemented. By not producing, Russia could inflict lasting damage on its oil wells, which it would seek to avoid. Similarly, Russia would be reluctant to burn off its natural gas rather than sell it. Russia may retaliate, but a tighter grip on Russian energy revenues gives Western countries more ammunition to respond, not less. Cash for peace.
Even if the cap doesn’t much lower gasoline prices or if some countries like China and India – refuse to abide by it, it would still put downward pressure on the price of oil and would reduce the risk that the next round of European sanctions could cause an energy-price shock that throws the global economy into reverse.
Denying Russia’s access to necessary insurance could be used more boldly than only to implement a price cap. The US, the UK, and the EU could impose additional requirements on countries that want to buy Russian oil in exchange for allowing insurance companies to underwrite tanker shipments. In addition, similar conditions could be placed on the financing necessary for Russia to export oil.
One idea worth exploring would be requiring countries that purchase Russian oil under the price cap to impose a tariff. Some of the revenue from this levy could be sent to Ukraine to help it rebuild.
In the US, this would require Congress to reverse its ban on Russian oil imports. This would be a huge political challenge for President Joe Biden’s administration. It would be similarly difficult for other governments.
But it would allow the price cap to advance three goals, not just two: Keep Russian oil flowing to avoid an oil shock from looming EU sanctions; stop the sale of that oil from financing the war in Ukraine; and use relatively cheap Russian oil to provide partial compensation to Ukraine to address the damage that Putin’s brutal war has caused.
Michael R. Strain is Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Source: Project Syndicate
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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