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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and political challenges in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe. Increased supply from Russia would lower prices, but the revenues from those additional sales would fuel President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
Adding to the problem is a new round of European sanctions set to target Russian oil imports by the end of the year. Such sanctions could push prices even higher – potentially triggering a global recession.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has proposed a solution: Allow Russia to continue exporting oil, but impose a cap on the price Russia can charge. This would help keep a lid on oil prices while ensuring that the US and its allies are not funding Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine.
Yellen has been trying to sell world leaders on the plan, and the G7 Leaders’ communiqué at the end of June expressed openness to the idea. The details are still largely unclear, but the plan would stop Russian seaborne exports by denying Russian oil exporters the insurance they need to underwrite tankers – that is, unless Russia agrees to sell its oil at the price cap. Without insurance, ships bearing Russian oil exports could not access crucial international waterways.
The UK and Europe are in a position to exert considerable leverage. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, 68% of deliveries of Russian crude oil this spring relied on EU, UK, and Norwegian ships. Nearly all of the tankers were insured in the UK, Norway, or Sweden.
If all goes according to plan, Russia would still sell the oil, because the price cap would be set at just above the marginal cost of production. At this price, it would make economic sense for Russia to keep producing, but there would be scant profits left over for war financing. And the additional oil being exported from Russia would put downward pressure on global prices.
Of course, all might not go according to plan. Russia could retaliate by cutting off its oil or natural gas exports, inflicting severe harm on many US allies and global markets. Russia would be betting that it could endure the economic pain for longer than countries that rely on its energy exports could. Or Russia could work around the cap, offering to sell its oil to friendly countries for more than the price cap but less than its price on the open market. Something similar is already happening under the existing sanctions regime: China and India, for example, are purchasing oil from Russia at a discount of around $30 per barrel. And the benefits from the price cap could accrue mainly to refiners rather than households.
Still, the cap should be implemented. By not producing, Russia could inflict lasting damage on its oil wells, which it would seek to avoid. Similarly, Russia would be reluctant to burn off its natural gas rather than sell it. Russia may retaliate, but a tighter grip on Russian energy revenues gives Western countries more ammunition to respond, not less. Cash for peace.
Even if the cap doesn’t much lower gasoline prices or if some countries like China and India – refuse to abide by it, it would still put downward pressure on the price of oil and would reduce the risk that the next round of European sanctions could cause an energy-price shock that throws the global economy into reverse.
Denying Russia’s access to necessary insurance could be used more boldly than only to implement a price cap. The US, the UK, and the EU could impose additional requirements on countries that want to buy Russian oil in exchange for allowing insurance companies to underwrite tanker shipments. In addition, similar conditions could be placed on the financing necessary for Russia to export oil.
One idea worth exploring would be requiring countries that purchase Russian oil under the price cap to impose a tariff. Some of the revenue from this levy could be sent to Ukraine to help it rebuild.
In the US, this would require Congress to reverse its ban on Russian oil imports. This would be a huge political challenge for President Joe Biden’s administration. It would be similarly difficult for other governments.
But it would allow the price cap to advance three goals, not just two: Keep Russian oil flowing to avoid an oil shock from looming EU sanctions; stop the sale of that oil from financing the war in Ukraine; and use relatively cheap Russian oil to provide partial compensation to Ukraine to address the damage that Putin’s brutal war has caused.
Michael R. Strain is Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Source: Project Syndicate
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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