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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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