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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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