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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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