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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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