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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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