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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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