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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
Monday, 30 January 17
DUE TO LUNAR YEAR HOLIDAYS, THE FREIGHT MARKET STAYED WEAK
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was down in all segments this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tra ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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