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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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